{"F": {"ts_code": "300708.SZ", "name": "聚灿光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.54, "pe_ttm": 48.7971, "pb": 2.7367, "dv_ttm": 0.3496, "total_mv": 805601.4322, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 16.9, 9.1, 10.4, 13.7, 14.2], "rev_series": [14.1, 20.1, 20.3, 24.8, 27.6, 31.3], "np_series": [0.2, 1.8, -0.6, 1.2, 2.0, 2.1], "roe_series": [2.9, 14.6, -3.9, 5.4, 7.0, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.3, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -6.5, "fcf_yield": -8.1, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 19.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.74, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 12.3, "payout": 53.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -43.8, "np_yoy": -34.1, "np_vol": 302.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 33.2, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": 47.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["LED芯片及外延片", 88.0], ["其他业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 12.5, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 60.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.5, "ret_60": 5.8, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 44.5, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 39, "hard": 57, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "聚灿光电:PE 比行业中位低 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}