{"F": {"ts_code": "300706.SZ", "name": "阿石创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.92, "pe_ttm": 638.3128, "pb": 10.133, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 720392.3196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 17.6, 14.2, 11.6, 6.2, 6.5], "rev_series": [3.5, 6.1, 6.9, 9.6, 11.8, 14.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, -0.3, -0.6], "roe_series": [1.3, 3.0, 1.9, 1.6, -3.4, -7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.13, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 65.1, "debt_mv": 13.7, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 27.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.4, "np_yoy": 225.0, "np_vol": 164.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["溅射靶材", 16.0], ["电子化学材料", 13.0], ["合金及金属材料", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": 38.3, "ret_pivot": 174.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.5, "ret_60": -30.9, "ret_120": 26.4, "ret_250": 2.8, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 76.2, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 31, "hard": 49, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 638.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -31% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "阿石创:PE 比行业中位高 556.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点。"]}}