{"F": {"ts_code": "300701.SZ", "name": "森霸传感", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.0, "pe_ttm": 34.1475, "pb": 2.8739, "dv_ttm": 1.7191, "total_mv": 279593.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.1, 49.7, 37.7, 38.3, 38.8, 39.5], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.1, 2.5, 2.9, 4.5, 4.2], "np_series": [1.6, 1.3, 0.4, 0.6, 0.4, 0.7], "roe_series": [26.4, 17.7, 5.7, 7.2, 4.5, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 38.8, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -21.4, "npm_median": 19.1, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.2, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 9.5, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 64.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.3, "np_cagr3": 20.0, "rev_yoy": -10.1, "np_yoy": 25.7, "np_vol": 53.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["热释电红外传感器", 30.0], ["探测器及系统配套", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.6, "ret_prev2_year": -10.3, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 41.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": -20.4, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 54, "hard": 26, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.1 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.8%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 0% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "森霸传感:PE 比行业中位低 27.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点。"]}}