{"F": {"ts_code": "300697.SZ", "name": "电工合金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.68, "pe_ttm": 31.6052, "pb": 4.8861, "dv_ttm": 1.0899, "total_mv": 635115.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.8, 11.8, 11.7, 11.6, 10.6, 10.8], "rev_series": [16.1, 21.7, 21.3, 23.9, 25.9, 32.0], "np_series": [1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 1.4, 1.3, 1.7], "roe_series": [13.3, 11.7, 11.9, 13.3, 12.0, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.3, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.89, "capex_dep": 1.81, "interest_debt": 8.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 13.9, "payout": 45.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.6, "np_cagr3": 13.6, "rev_yoy": 72.0, "np_yoy": 42.6, "np_vol": 13.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铜母线系列产品", 74.0], ["电气化铁路接触网系列产品", 19.0], ["其他业务", 4.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.9, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 103.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -7.8, "ret_250": -8.8, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 58.4, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 70, "hard": 15, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 11.6%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "电工合金:PE 比行业中位高 11.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点。"]}}