{"F": {"ts_code": "300694.SZ", "name": "蠡湖股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20181015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.85, "pe_ttm": 17.2713, "pb": 1.5612, "dv_ttm": 0.7834, "total_mv": 235521.384, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.4, 11.3, 14.6, 15.9, 15.0, 14.5], "rev_series": [10.8, 13.9, 14.8, 16.0, 15.2, 14.1], "np_series": [0.5, -0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [3.7, -1.5, 3.8, 5.2, 4.1, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.5, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 21.1, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 15.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": 37.0, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": 99.3, "np_vol": 165.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["压气机壳", 28.0], ["传统燃油车压气机壳及其装配件", 28.0], ["涡轮壳", 17.0], ["传统燃油车涡轮壳及其装配件", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.0, "ret_prev2_year": 27.3, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 45.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -19.7, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 78.5}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 42, "hard": 54, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.3 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 9% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "蠡湖股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}