{"F": {"ts_code": "300693.SZ", "name": "盛弘股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170822", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.13, "pe_ttm": 22.9968, "pb": 5.5887, "dv_ttm": 1.243, "total_mv": 1255249.5454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.2, 43.5, 43.9, 41.0, 39.2, 38.5], "rev_series": [7.7, 10.2, 15.0, 26.5, 30.4, 34.6], "np_series": [1.1, 1.1, 2.2, 4.0, 4.3, 4.8], "roe_series": [15.0, 14.2, 23.4, 32.0, 26.2, 23.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.6, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 23.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.59, "capex_dep": 3.2, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 46.9, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 32.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.1, "np_cagr3": 28.7, "rev_yoy": 29.2, "np_yoy": 44.1, "np_vol": 39.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 20.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.1, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电动汽车充电设备", 28.0], ["电动汽车充电桩", 28.0], ["工业配套电源", 17.0], ["新能源电能变换设备", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.2, "ret_ytd": 6.2, "ret_pivot": 103.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": -5.8, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": 5.5, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 61.2, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 58, "hard": 23, "bondness": 20}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 44%,PE TTM 23.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.6 倍,PEG 0.74。", "自由现金流 6.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.0 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -6% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "盛弘股份:PE 比行业中位低 46.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}