{"F": {"ts_code": "300691.SZ", "name": "联合光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.52, "pe_ttm": 104.6907, "pb": 2.3856, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 390658.7124, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.9, 22.9, 23.8, 23.1, 23.6, 25.1], "rev_series": [12.9, 16.4, 15.0, 16.5, 18.8, 20.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [5.4, 6.0, 3.6, 4.0, 2.4, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 23.6, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 10.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 2.39, "capex_dep": 3.45, "interest_debt": 9.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 51.9, "debt_mv": 24.1, "payout": 59.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": -45.1, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": 138.7, "np_vol": 43.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["安防类产品", 17.0], ["主营业务", 17.0], ["创新类产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.1, "ret_prev2_year": -14.5, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": -10.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.2, "ret_60": -15.5, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -29.3, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 38.5, "pos_52w": 70.4}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 56, "hard": 49, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 104.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 104.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -16% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "联合光电:PE 比行业中位高 53.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点。"]}}