{"F": {"ts_code": "300688.SZ", "name": "创业黑马", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 13.7705, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 485400.55, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.3, 46.7, 28.3, 55.1, 43.0, 52.2], "rev_series": [1.6, 3.4, 3.5, 2.7, 2.2, 1.4], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, -0.8, 0.1, -1.1, -0.5], "roe_series": [2.0, 2.4, -14.4, 1.7, -21.8, -12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.2, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 46.7, "gm_std": 9.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -32.0, "npm_median": -31.8, "roe_median": -12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.77, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 8.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -25.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -33.6, "np_yoy": 9.2, "np_vol": 544.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["企业加速服务", 19.0], ["人工智能服务", 11.0], ["人工智能服务：人工智能培训", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.5, "ret_ytd": -0.7, "ret_pivot": 33.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": 13.9, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": -19.0, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 60.3, "pos_52w": 78.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 0, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 46.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -32.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 14% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "创业黑马:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}