{"F": {"ts_code": "300681.SZ", "name": "英搏尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.48, "pe_ttm": 24.6919, "pb": 2.1041, "dv_ttm": 0.2886, "total_mv": 657406.7844, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 20.7, 16.2, 17.1, 14.9, 15.9], "rev_series": [4.2, 9.8, 20.1, 19.6, 24.3, 38.7], "np_series": [0.1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.8, 0.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [2.3, 7.5, 2.0, 4.6, 3.7, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.3, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.2, "fix_assets": 24.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.1, "capex_dep": 5.84, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 58.6, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 9.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 24.5, "np_cagr3": 96.2, "rev_yoy": 77.1, "np_yoy": 216.8, "np_vol": 125.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 25.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.4, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电驱总成", 27.0], ["电源总成", 18.0], ["电机控制器", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.9, "ret_prev2_year": 29.4, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": 72.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -29.2, "ret_120": -5.6, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 44.3, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 44, "hard": 52, "bondness": 6}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 5.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.7 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -29% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "英搏尔:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}