{"F": {"ts_code": "300680.SZ", "name": "隆盛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.77, "pe_ttm": 26.347, "pb": 2.8899, "dv_ttm": 0.7782, "total_mv": 581463.1803, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 23.2, 18.9, 17.8, 18.0, 17.4], "rev_series": [5.8, 9.3, 11.5, 18.3, 24.0, 26.5], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 0.8, 1.5, 2.2, 2.4], "roe_series": [7.9, 11.4, 5.9, 8.7, 12.3, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.6, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.4, "pb_calc": 2.89, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 48.9, "debt_mv": 19.4, "payout": 20.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.1, "np_cagr3": 47.0, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": -18.7, "np_vol": 44.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 18.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["EGR产品及天然气喷射系统", 15.0], ["EGR产品", 15.0], ["新能源汽车零部件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.3, "ret_prev2_year": 30.2, "ret_ytd": -53.8, "ret_pivot": 70.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.8, "ret_60": -17.9, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -41.2, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 39.0}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 44, "hard": 51, "bondness": 20}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.3 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -18% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "隆盛科技:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}