{"F": {"ts_code": "300669.SZ", "name": "沪宁股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.18, "pe_ttm": 338.4286, "pb": 5.1558, "dv_ttm": 0.3433, "total_mv": 446691.349, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 26.6, 25.4, 26.9, 24.4, 21.9], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 3.2, 3.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [10.1, 7.2, 6.1, 5.6, 3.1, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 5.16, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 13.0, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 69.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": -28.1, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": -64.4, "np_vol": 17.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电梯安全部件", 41.0], ["电梯其他关键部件", 6.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.7, "ret_prev2_year": 35.3, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": 90.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": -17.7, "ret_120": -30.1, "ret_250": -35.8, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 56, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 338.4 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 338.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -18% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "沪宁股份:PE 比行业中位高 296.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点。"]}}