{"F": {"ts_code": "300664.SZ", "name": "鹏鹞环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.68, "pe_ttm": 23.964, "pb": 0.7963, "dv_ttm": 2.1028, "total_mv": 352338.6204, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 33.5, 34.5, 35.2, 32.0, 35.2], "rev_series": [21.2, 20.9, 18.8, 20.8, 19.1, 16.6], "np_series": [3.9, 3.1, 2.3, 2.6, 1.6, 1.7], "roe_series": [11.3, 8.5, 5.8, 6.1, 3.8, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.8, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 34.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 43.8, "debt_mv": 44.7, "payout": 42.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.1, "np_cagr3": -9.9, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": -12.6, "np_vol": 19.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["工程承包", 11.0], ["污水处理业务", 10.0], ["污水处理", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 13.4, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 18.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -25.1, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -33.0, "vol_250": 34.1, "pos_52w": 74.9}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 55, "hard": 15, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.0 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.0 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 0% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "鹏鹞环保:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}