{"F": {"ts_code": "300663.SZ", "name": "科蓝软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 15.643, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 429650.1654, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.7, 34.7, 35.9, 28.6, 9.3, 9.8], "rev_series": [10.4, 13.0, 11.8, 11.7, 8.4, 5.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.2, -1.2, -5.3, -3.9], "roe_series": [6.6, 3.4, 1.8, -10.5, -55.8, -64.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": -4.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 28.6, "gm_std": 11.8, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": -11.4, "roe_median": -10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.02, "capex_dep": 7.68, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.4, "debt_mv": 21.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -20.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -42.3, "np_yoy": -1110.5, "np_vol": 258.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["技术开发", 27.0], ["电子渠道及中台", 18.0], ["互联网银行(含互联网核心)", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.6, "ret_prev2_year": 22.8, "ret_ytd": -49.1, "ret_pivot": -23.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": 27.7, "ret_120": -40.9, "ret_250": -56.1, "mdd_250": -69.7, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 43.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 52, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 80%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%,稳定度 59%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 7.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -56%,最大回撤 -70%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 28% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "科蓝软件:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.6个百分点。"]}}