{"F": {"ts_code": "300661.SZ", "name": "圣邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 106.92, "pe_ttm": 95.6259, "pb": 7.4997, "dv_ttm": 0.1862, "total_mv": 7330064.1876, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 55.5, 59.0, 49.6, 51.5, 50.9], "rev_series": [12.0, 22.4, 31.9, 26.2, 33.5, 39.0], "np_series": [2.9, 7.0, 8.7, 2.8, 5.0, 5.5], "roe_series": [22.1, 35.9, 29.8, 7.7, 11.8, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.7, "np_ttm": 7.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 51.5, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 10.2, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 7.5, "capex_dep": 3.2, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 16.6, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 18.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": -14.4, "rev_yoy": 42.7, "np_yoy": 109.3, "np_vol": 70.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电源管理产品", 29.0], ["信号链产品", 20.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": 56.2, "ret_pivot": 114.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": 47.4, "ret_250": 36.4, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 60.0, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 70, "hard": 9, "bondness": 23}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 95.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.5%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 3.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 95.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 2% / 47%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "圣邦股份:PE 比行业中位高 14.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点。"]}}