{"F": {"ts_code": "300658.SZ", "name": "延江股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "生活用纸", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.36, "pe_ttm": 57.4069, "pb": 2.5696, "dv_ttm": 0.8563, "total_mv": 344743.6076, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.4, 16.8, 15.2, 17.4, 18.3, 17.0], "rev_series": [15.9, 12.5, 12.3, 12.6, 14.8, 17.4], "np_series": [3.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [31.0, 1.6, 2.5, 1.5, 2.0, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -26.3, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 52.7, "debt_mv": 29.8, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": 11.3, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": 75.6, "np_vol": 58.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["销售打孔无纺布", 12.0], ["打孔无纺布", 12.0], ["销售热风无纺布", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 191.7, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 140.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -13.3, "ret_120": -60.9, "ret_250": 49.5, "mdd_250": -69.2, "vol_250": 78.3, "pos_52w": 34.3}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 45, "hard": 67, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 50%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 34%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -13% / -61%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "延江股份:PE 比行业中位高 32.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点。"]}}