{"F": {"ts_code": "300657.SZ", "name": "弘信电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.01, "pe_ttm": 75.4944, "pb": 10.4984, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1639709.1656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.4, 3.9, 4.8, 2.4, 10.0, 12.5], "rev_series": [26.5, 32.0, 27.9, 34.8, 58.8, 73.1], "np_series": [0.8, -2.7, -3.1, -4.4, 0.6, 1.5], "roe_series": [5.2, -17.1, -18.7, -29.1, 4.7, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.9, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_ttm": -8.3, "fcf_yield": -5.1, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": 4.8, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.2, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": -9.0, "roe_median": -17.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.2, "fix_assets": 26.8, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 10.5, "capex_dep": 1.08, "interest_debt": 35.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 78.0, "debt_mv": 21.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 37.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.4, "np_yoy": 129.6, "np_vol": 215.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 48.2, "fwd_pe2": 27.5, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["印制电路板", 33.0], ["算力相关产品及服务", 29.0], ["算力及相关业务", 29.0], ["背光模组", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.1, "ret_prev2_year": 16.9, "ret_ytd": 23.0, "ret_pivot": 161.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -22.7, "ret_120": 7.7, "ret_250": -8.0, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 62.1, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 13, "hard": 47, "bondness": 11}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 75 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 36 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.1%(经营现金流/市值 -2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 20%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -23% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "弘信电子:PE 比行业中位高 10.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}