{"F": {"ts_code": "300656.SZ", "name": "民德电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.87, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.4435, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 425587.875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.6, 28.2, 25.3, 32.9, 34.1, 36.2], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.5, 5.2, 4.0, 4.1, 3.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.9, 0.1, -1.1, -1.0], "roe_series": [10.0, 14.0, 10.5, 1.1, -10.4, -10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.9, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 5.44, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 18.2, "payout": 41.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -16.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": -608.0, "np_vol": 404.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["信息识别及自动化产品", 30.0], ["信息识别产品", 30.0], ["功率半导体产品", 25.0], ["电子元器件产品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.5, "ret_prev2_year": 1.6, "ret_ytd": 12.9, "ret_pivot": 38.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -32.6, "ret_120": 6.5, "ret_250": -14.2, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 63.9, "pos_52w": 61.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 86, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 54%、毛利率 32.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -33% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "民德电子:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 41.2个百分点。"]}}