{"F": {"ts_code": "300654.SZ", "name": "世纪天鸿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.22, "pe_ttm": 169.5288, "pb": 4.4843, "dv_ttm": 0.4892, "total_mv": 374179.6478, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 31.7, 33.0, 37.2, 37.7, 36.4], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.1, 4.3, 5.1, 5.3, 5.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [6.9, 6.9, 5.5, 5.3, 5.1, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.48, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 45.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -11.1, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -105.6, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 131.9, "fwd_pe2": 102.2, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 4.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["教辅图书", 39.0], ["策划费", 4.0], ["策划服务费收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.3, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": 29.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": 11.1, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": -9.6, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 47.9, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 60, "hard": 6, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 169.5 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 131.9 倍,次年 102.2 倍,PEG 4.55。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.4%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 169.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 11% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "世纪天鸿:PE 比行业中位高 136.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}