{"F": {"ts_code": "300650.SZ", "name": "太龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170503", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.7, "pe_ttm": 83.5811, "pb": 1.9814, "dv_ttm": 0.3255, "total_mv": 282441.042, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.3, 8.0, 9.2, 9.6, 8.6, 8.1], "rev_series": [11.3, 49.5, 32.4, 26.4, 25.7, 26.8], "np_series": [0.3, 1.2, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [4.9, 14.9, 5.0, 3.7, 4.2, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -5.1, "ocf_yield": -4.0, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 20.5, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 39.2, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": -9.9, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": -33.5, "np_vol": 154.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["末端污染治理设备", 31.0], ["半导体分销", 31.0], ["照明器具", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.7, "ret_prev2_year": -20.0, "ret_ytd": -29.3, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": -4.3, "ret_120": -30.9, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 53.9}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 41, "hard": 17, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.1%(经营现金流/市值 -4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -4% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "太龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 32.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}