{"F": {"ts_code": "300649.SZ", "name": "杭州园林", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "园林工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.969, "dv_ttm": 0.1744, "total_mv": 379638.3922, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 18.7, 17.2, 26.6, 8.4, 21.2], "rev_series": [8.1, 7.5, 6.6, 3.1, 2.1, 1.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, -0.4, -0.4], "roe_series": [11.7, 6.7, 2.1, 1.7, -7.2, -8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.2, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.97, "capex_dep": 18.33, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -40.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.0, "np_yoy": -147.8, "np_vol": 187.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["园林设计业务", 25.0], ["园林景观设计", 25.0], ["其他收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.9, "ret_prev2_year": -36.0, "ret_ytd": 100.3, "ret_pivot": 225.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.5, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": 90.6, "ret_250": 47.9, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 64.8, "pos_52w": 95.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 34, "bondness": 54}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 18.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 11% / 91%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "杭州园林:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}