{"F": {"ts_code": "300645.SZ", "name": "正元智慧", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.93, "pe_ttm": 132.4819, "pb": 1.8835, "dv_ttm": 0.1417, "total_mv": 197954.3545, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 40.4, 38.3, 41.8, 43.2, 42.0], "rev_series": [8.3, 9.5, 10.7, 12.2, 11.9, 13.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [4.2, 8.1, 8.2, 4.0, 1.1, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 11.6, "gm_median": 41.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.0, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 3.8, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 62.2, "payout": 22.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": -43.1, "rev_yoy": 11.0, "np_yoy": 9.9, "np_vol": 62.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["系统建设", 21.0], ["运营和服务", 21.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.7, "ret_prev2_year": -19.1, "ret_ytd": -25.5, "ret_pivot": 10.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -29.9, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 63, "hard": 30, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 132.5 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.8%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 11.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 132.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 7% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "正元智慧:PE 比行业中位高 80.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}