{"F": {"ts_code": "300644.SZ", "name": "南京聚隆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.61, "pe_ttm": 22.8331, "pb": 2.131, "dv_ttm": 1.213, "total_mv": 228110.4495, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 11.6, 13.1, 16.1, 15.3, 17.1], "rev_series": [11.4, 16.6, 17.1, 18.3, 23.9, 28.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.3, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 1.3], "roe_series": [8.6, 4.3, 7.3, 8.8, 9.2, 12.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -1.8, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 59.8, "debt_mv": 28.8, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.8, "np_cagr3": 33.7, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": -56.7, "np_vol": 42.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["改性工程塑料", 21.0], ["改性通用塑料", 18.0], ["长玻纤增强材料", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.6, "ret_prev2_year": 6.8, "ret_ytd": -43.8, "ret_pivot": 31.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -15.6, "ret_120": -33.5, "ret_250": -46.9, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 40.0, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 42, "hard": 43, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.8 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -16% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "南京聚隆:PE 比行业中位低 18.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}