{"F": {"ts_code": "300643.SZ", "name": "万通智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.77, "pe_ttm": 25.3304, "pb": 3.1223, "dv_ttm": 1.2319, "total_mv": 411520.9546, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 30.3, 31.4, 31.2, 34.5, 34.4], "rev_series": [7.9, 10.2, 10.7, 10.7, 10.8, 12.2], "np_series": [0.4, 1.1, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.6], "roe_series": [8.2, 17.2, 15.0, 11.9, 11.2, 12.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.6, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.2, "pb_calc": 3.12, "capex_dep": 2.52, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": 5.7, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": 4.8, "np_vol": 78.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["金属软管", 24.0], ["传感器及数字信息控制设备", 14.0], ["气门嘴及其他轮胎用品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.0, "ret_prev2_year": -2.9, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 82.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -33.3, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 58, "hard": 43, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.3 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.4%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.3 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 4% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "万通智控:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}