{"F": {"ts_code": "300642.SZ", "name": "透景生命", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.32, "pe_ttm": 228.4049, "pb": 1.9555, "dv_ttm": 0.8527, "total_mv": 281055.6236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.4, 66.8, 57.0, 65.3, 66.1, 69.6], "rev_series": [4.9, 6.5, 7.2, 5.4, 4.4, 3.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 1.2, 0.9, 0.3, 0.0], "roe_series": [9.9, 12.1, 8.7, 6.0, 2.3, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 66.1, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 15.6, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 9.2, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 26.7, "debt_mv": 15.3, "payout": 70.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -20.2, "np_cagr3": -69.4, "rev_yoy": 17.8, "np_yoy": 315.9, "np_vol": 41.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 216.5, "fwd_pe2": 82.5, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 162.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["试剂收入", 43.0], ["仪器收入", 5.0], ["仪器业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 52.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.2, "ret_60": 37.5, "ret_120": -0.3, "ret_250": -39.4, "mdd_250": -64.1, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 55.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 64}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 228.4 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 216.5 倍,次年 82.5 倍,PEG 1.34。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 66.1%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 66.1%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 228.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 38% / -0%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "透景生命:PE 比行业中位高 189.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}