{"F": {"ts_code": "300641.SZ", "name": "正丹股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.02, "pe_ttm": 22.955, "pb": 2.314, "dv_ttm": 5.7061, "total_mv": 736813.8096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.1, 13.0, 6.2, 3.8, 41.5, 38.1], "rev_series": [13.2, 17.6, 19.2, 15.4, 34.8, 22.9], "np_series": [0.4, 1.0, 0.6, 0.1, 11.9, 7.1], "roe_series": [3.2, 7.3, 3.7, 0.6, 54.9, 23.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.0, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 16.1, "gm_stab": -0.24, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 3.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 58.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": 133.9, "rev_yoy": -27.2, "np_yoy": -62.4, "np_vol": 4783.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["酸酐及酯类", 80.0], ["高沸点芳烃溶剂", 14.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.8, "ret_prev2_year": 476.2, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": -8.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": -14.4, "ret_120": -35.8, "ret_250": -39.8, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 10, "hard": 34, "bondness": 65}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 5.7%、营收 3 年复合 6.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 -24%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.0 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -14% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "正丹股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点。"]}}