{"F": {"ts_code": "300640.SZ", "name": "德艺文创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6564, "dv_ttm": 0.3682, "total_mv": 211164.5186, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 12.3, 15.8, 19.3, 16.4, 15.4], "rev_series": [5.6, 8.1, 8.4, 7.2, 9.1, 10.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [11.6, 4.1, 6.7, 3.2, 1.1, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.8, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 5.68, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 8.8, "payout": 68.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": -36.4, "rev_yoy": 4.8, "np_yoy": -223.6, "np_vol": 78.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["休闲日用品", 19.0], ["创意装饰品", 19.0], ["时尚小家具", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.9, "ret_prev2_year": -11.3, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 70.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 13.9, "ret_120": -7.6, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 77, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 5.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 14% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "德艺文创:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点。"]}}