{"F": {"ts_code": "300639.SZ", "name": "凯普生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0017, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 381435.3977, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.4, 67.6, 69.4, 61.0, 47.7, 45.5], "rev_series": [13.5, 26.7, 56.0, 11.0, 8.2, 6.7], "np_series": [3.6, 8.5, 17.3, 1.4, -6.5, -1.3], "roe_series": [20.9, 30.5, 42.6, 2.9, -14.6, -3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 61.0, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 12.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 11.3, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 26.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -50.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.7, "np_yoy": 134.9, "np_vol": 261.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["自产产品", 41.0], ["检验服务", 22.0], ["医学检验服务", 22.0], ["其他业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.3, "ret_prev2_year": -36.1, "ret_ytd": 9.7, "ret_pivot": 16.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 14.3, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -12.1, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 64, "hard": 48, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 14% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "凯普生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点。"]}}