{"F": {"ts_code": "300638.SZ", "name": "广和通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.08, "pe_ttm": 89.8497, "pb": 2.825, "dv_ttm": 1.2222, "total_mv": 1715799.3372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 24.1, 20.2, 23.1, 19.3, 16.4], "rev_series": [27.4, 41.1, 56.5, 77.2, 81.9, 69.9], "np_series": [2.8, 4.0, 3.6, 5.6, 6.7, 3.5], "roe_series": [19.8, 22.8, 16.6, 20.3, 19.8, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.6, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": -13.3, "fcf_ttm": -15.7, "fcf_yield": -9.2, "ocf_yield": -7.8, "gm_median": 20.2, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 19.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.83, "capex_dep": 8.0, "interest_debt": 14.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 42.8, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": 51.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -1.6, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": -71.6, "np_vol": 36.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 40.2, "fwd_pe2": 28.6, "fwd_g1": 124.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["无线通信模组", 31.0], ["IOT无线通信模块", 31.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.3, "ret_prev2_year": 8.3, "ret_ytd": -35.1, "ret_pivot": 89.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -1.6, "ret_120": -29.2, "ret_250": -39.3, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 58.4, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 44, "hard": 6, "bondness": 49}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 89.8 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(10 篇研报)前瞻 PE 40.2 倍,次年 28.6 倍,PEG 0.98。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.2%(经营现金流/市值 -7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 8.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -2% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "广和通:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点。"]}}