{"F": {"ts_code": "300637.SZ", "name": "扬帆新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.12, "dv_ttm": 0.3161, "total_mv": 222777.8734, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.7, 18.8, 19.9, 15.3, 14.4, 19.5], "rev_series": [4.9, 7.2, 7.9, 6.9, 7.3, 9.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.1, 0.1, -0.9, -0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.6, 0.9, 0.7, -12.1, -6.7, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.6, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.12, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 47.9, "debt_mv": 20.8, "payout": 46.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 38.8, "rev_yoy": -2.3, "np_yoy": -71.3, "np_vol": 670.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["巯基化合物及衍生品", 19.0], ["巯基化合物及其衍生物", 19.0], ["光引发剂", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.5, "ret_prev2_year": -11.7, "ret_ytd": -18.2, "ret_pivot": 13.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -40.8, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 71, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -8% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "扬帆新材:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}