{"F": {"ts_code": "300634.SZ", "name": "彩讯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.3, "pe_ttm": 40.8914, "pb": 3.0199, "dv_ttm": 0.8854, "total_mv": 915958.127, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.3, 40.8, 42.2, 38.7, 39.1, 35.2], "rev_series": [7.4, 8.9, 12.0, 15.0, 16.5, 18.3], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 2.3, 3.2, 2.3, 2.9], "roe_series": [9.7, 8.4, 10.3, 13.3, 8.6, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 39.1, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 7.9, "pb_calc": 3.02, "capex_dep": 3.7, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 19.8, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 27.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.3, "np_cagr3": 8.9, "rev_yoy": -24.3, "np_yoy": -49.2, "np_vol": 28.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 26.5, "fwd_pe2": 21.9, "fwd_g1": 54.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["技术服务", 26.0], ["智慧渠道产品线", 17.0], ["智算服务与数据智能产品线", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.7, "ret_prev2_year": 7.7, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": 46.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -2.4, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -31.3, "mdd_250": -51.3, "vol_250": 55.7, "pos_52w": 56.7}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 59, "hard": 5, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.9 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.1%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 3.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -2% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "彩讯股份:PE 比行业中位低 43.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}