{"F": {"ts_code": "300629.SZ", "name": "新劲刚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.26, "pe_ttm": 44.2553, "pb": 2.5966, "dv_ttm": 0.5447, "total_mv": 459099.1284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.2, 57.0, 60.8, 62.6, 64.0, 61.9], "rev_series": [3.2, 3.6, 4.3, 5.1, 4.8, 3.9], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2, 0.8], "roe_series": [6.4, 9.7, 11.3, 9.7, 7.2, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 61.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 18.6, "npm_median": 26.9, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.5, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 27.2, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 13.6, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 19.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": -14.7, "rev_yoy": 39.3, "np_yoy": 292.7, "np_vol": 43.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["微波射频", 33.0], ["射频微波产品", 33.0], ["特殊应用领域材料", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": 0.3, "ret_ytd": -22.9, "ret_pivot": 20.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": -31.1, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 58.7, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 76, "hard": 4, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 44.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.9%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -10% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "新劲刚:PE 比行业中位低 34.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点。"]}}