{"F": {"ts_code": "300624.SZ", "name": "万兴科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.1329, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1070889.7657, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [94.9, 95.5, 95.5, 94.8, 93.2, 90.8], "rev_series": [9.8, 10.3, 11.8, 14.8, 14.4, 15.3], "np_series": [1.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.9, -1.6, -0.9], "roe_series": [15.8, 3.2, 4.8, 8.0, -13.3, -8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.8, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 94.8, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 14.0, "pb_calc": 11.13, "capex_dep": 3.92, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 38.2, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 17.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": -30.6, "np_vol": 142.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 395.6, "fwd_pe2": 135.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 193.0, "peg": 2.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["视频创意类", 39.0], ["视频创制类", 39.0], ["实用工具类", 14.0], ["文档创意类", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.5, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": 7.1, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -59.6, "vol_250": 58.4, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 90, "hard": 44, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 94.8%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 94.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 3.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 7% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "万兴科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 46.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点。"]}}