{"F": {"ts_code": "300618.SZ", "name": "寒锐钴业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "钴", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.15, "pe_ttm": 45.4483, "pb": 1.8447, "dv_ttm": 0.5128, "total_mv": 1026645.8865, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 30.7, 17.6, 16.0, 16.3, 12.9], "rev_series": [22.5, 43.5, 50.9, 47.9, 59.5, 66.9], "np_series": [3.3, 6.6, 2.1, 1.4, 2.0, 2.5], "roe_series": [11.8, 15.4, 4.3, 2.7, 3.8, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 74.3, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -8.2, "fcf_ttm": -16.0, "fcf_yield": -15.6, "ocf_yield": -8.0, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 41.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 2.57, "interest_debt": 32.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 44.9, "debt_mv": 31.6, "payout": 22.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.6, "np_cagr3": 6.2, "rev_yoy": 23.3, "np_yoy": -22.5, "np_vol": 58.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铜产品", 36.0], ["电积铜", 36.0], ["钴产品", 18.0], ["镍矿产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.6, "ret_prev2_year": 20.0, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 57.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -30.7, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 70, "hard": 62, "bondness": 33}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 41 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钴 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -15.6%,股息率 0.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.6%(经营现金流/市值 -8.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -5% / -31%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "寒锐钴业:PE 比行业中位高 27.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}