{"F": {"ts_code": "300616.SZ", "name": "尚品宅配", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170307", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.73, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8914, "dv_ttm": 1.7289, "total_mv": 240905.668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 33.2, 34.6, 35.0, 33.1, 30.4], "rev_series": [65.1, 73.1, 53.1, 49.0, 37.9, 35.5], "np_series": [1.0, 0.9, 0.5, 0.6, -2.2, -2.5], "roe_series": [2.9, 2.5, 1.3, 1.8, -6.1, -7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.8, "np_ttm": -4.0, "ocf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -23.3, "ocf_yield": -13.4, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.0, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 19.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 79.6, "payout": 272.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.2, "np_yoy": -188.4, "np_vol": 171.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 165.1, "fwd_pe2": 26.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 531.0, "peg": 0.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["定制家具产品", 26.0], ["定制家具", 26.0], ["配套家居产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.1, "ret_prev2_year": -30.0, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 22.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -19.7, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -22.7, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 64, "bondness": 68}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 19 亿,经营现金流/市值 -13.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 40%、毛利率 33.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(轻工制造)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -23.3%(经营现金流/市值 -13.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -20% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "尚品宅配:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}