{"F": {"ts_code": "300607.SZ", "name": "拓斯达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.55, "pe_ttm": 110.2782, "pb": 5.5641, "dv_ttm": 0.0922, "total_mv": 1647939.642, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.3, 24.5, 18.6, 18.5, 14.6, 28.3], "rev_series": [27.6, 32.9, 49.8, 45.5, 28.7, 25.1], "np_series": [5.2, 0.7, 1.6, 0.9, -2.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [27.2, 3.0, 7.0, 3.7, -9.4, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -30.8, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 5.56, "capex_dep": 1.98, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 47.5, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 20.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -20.4, "np_cagr3": -22.7, "rev_yoy": 18.6, "np_yoy": 263.0, "np_vol": 189.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 99.2, "fwd_pe2": 73.8, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 2.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业机器人应用及成套装备", 28.0], ["工业机器人及自动化应用系统", 28.0], ["注塑装备", 10.0], ["注塑机配套设备及自动供料系统", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.3, "ret_prev2_year": 63.2, "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_pivot": 259.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": 25.1, "ret_250": -8.6, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 61.6, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 39, "hard": 24, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 110.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 99.2 倍,次年 73.8 倍,PEG 2.92。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 110.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 3% / 25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "拓斯达:PE 比行业中位高 32.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}