{"F": {"ts_code": "300604.SZ", "name": "长川科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 254.23, "pe_ttm": 87.8605, "pb": 29.154, "dv_ttm": 0.0387, "total_mv": 16412636.1181, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.1, 51.8, 56.7, 57.1, 54.9, 55.1], "rev_series": [8.0, 15.1, 25.8, 17.8, 36.4, 52.9], "np_series": [0.8, 2.2, 4.6, 0.5, 4.6, 13.3], "roe_series": [8.1, 15.3, 22.8, 1.8, 14.9, 33.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.9, "np_ttm": 18.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 55.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 6.6, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.2, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.5, "pb_calc": 29.15, "capex_dep": 5.82, "interest_debt": 30.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 52.8, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 13.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.1, "np_cagr3": 42.4, "rev_yoy": 59.7, "np_yoy": 125.7, "np_vol": 343.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 73.3, "fwd_pe2": 49.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["测试机", 25.0], ["分选机", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 130.4, "ret_prev2_year": 16.6, "ret_ytd": 151.2, "ret_pivot": 840.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.2, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": 104.9, "ret_250": 396.4, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 81.4, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 73, "hard": 16, "bondness": 9}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 87.9 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 73.3 倍,次年 49.8 倍,PEG 1.56。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.1%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 5.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 87.9 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 396%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 9% / 105%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "长川科技:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}