{"F": {"ts_code": "300599.SZ", "name": "雄塑科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "管材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0626, "dv_ttm": 0.8869, "total_mv": 401823.6552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 15.9, 14.0, 16.4, 9.9, 12.1], "rev_series": [20.7, 23.6, 17.7, 12.9, 10.3, 9.1], "np_series": [2.1, 1.1, -0.0, 0.3, -1.1, -0.8], "roe_series": [12.7, 5.5, -0.1, 1.2, -5.2, -4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": -0.1, "roe_median": -0.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.4, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 11.4, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 285.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -19.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.3, "np_yoy": 303.3, "np_vol": 754.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["PVC系列管道", 21.0], ["PVC系列管材", 21.0], ["PE系列管道", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.1, "ret_prev2_year": -7.8, "ret_ytd": 39.4, "ret_pivot": 135.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -13.4, "ret_120": 8.5, "ret_250": 29.4, "mdd_250": -36.8, "vol_250": 57.2, "pos_52w": 81.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 60, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -13% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "雄塑科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}