{"F": {"ts_code": "300598.SZ", "name": "诚迈科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.0504, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 724501.8963, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 22.3, 18.7, 17.4, 15.2, 13.4], "rev_series": [9.4, 14.2, 18.6, 18.8, 19.8, 22.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.3, -1.7, 1.9, -1.3, -1.0], "roe_series": [8.1, 3.0, -14.8, 14.4, -8.2, -6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": -5.2, "roe_median": -6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.05, "capex_dep": 3.31, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 11.9, "payout": 10.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": 61.3, "np_vol": 293.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["软件技术服务", 36.0], ["软件定制服务", 8.0], ["软硬件产品的开发和销售", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 47.0, "ret_ytd": -27.4, "ret_pivot": -4.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.8, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -43.3, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 54.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 10, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 3.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 8% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "诚迈科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 31.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}