{"F": {"ts_code": "300596.SZ", "name": "利安隆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.0, "pe_ttm": 17.0357, "pb": 1.8881, "dv_ttm": 1.0976, "total_mv": 941440.77, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 26.8, 24.3, 19.8, 21.2, 22.3], "rev_series": [24.8, 34.4, 48.4, 52.8, 56.9, 60.2], "np_series": [2.9, 4.2, 5.3, 3.6, 4.3, 5.0], "roe_series": [14.4, 17.9, 16.6, 9.1, 10.0, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.2, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.9, "fix_assets": 39.1, "goodwill_ratio": 5.8, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 38.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 41.3, "payout": 20.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 23.2, "np_vol": 24.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高分子材料抗老化助剂(产品)", 44.0], ["高分子材料抗老化助剂", 44.0], ["润滑油添加剂", 12.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.7, "ret_prev2_year": 4.5, "ret_ytd": -1.8, "ret_pivot": 89.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": -12.5, "ret_250": 21.8, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 75.2}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 48, "hard": 57, "bondness": 37}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 23%,PE TTM 17.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 15.2 倍,PEG 0.84。", "自由现金流 0.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 10% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "利安隆:PE 比行业中位低 18.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}