{"F": {"ts_code": "300592.SZ", "name": "华凯易佰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "跨境电商", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.7, "pe_ttm": 23.7611, "pb": 2.748, "dv_ttm": 1.474, "total_mv": 653352.931, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 37.2, 37.9, 37.0, 33.9, 33.4], "rev_series": [1.4, 20.7, 44.2, 65.2, 90.2, 91.3], "np_series": [-0.6, -0.9, 2.2, 3.3, 1.7, 1.5], "roe_series": [-13.1, -6.9, 10.1, 15.3, 7.6, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 85.7, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_yield": 10.3, "ocf_yield": 14.2, "gm_median": 37.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 20.1, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 21.2, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 20.29, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 39.4, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 27.4, "np_cagr3": -12.1, "rev_yoy": -12.4, "np_yoy": 349.1, "np_vol": 148.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["家居园艺类", 11.0], ["家居园艺", 11.0], ["其他业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": 57.4, "ret_pivot": 59.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": 30.2, "ret_120": 32.6, "ret_250": 43.7, "mdd_250": -35.6, "vol_250": 67.5, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 63, "hard": 18, "bondness": 23}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 349%,PE TTM 23.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.9 倍,PEG 0.73。", "自由现金流 6.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 26%(11 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.0%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.3%(经营现金流/市值 14.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 20.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.8 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 30% / 33%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "华凯易佰:PE 比行业中位低 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点。"]}}