{"F": {"ts_code": "300591.SZ", "name": "万里马", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "鞋帽及其他", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 17.9428, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 302632.6548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.3, 14.6, 13.6, 18.1, 13.6, 14.0], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.4, 4.8, 6.2, 5.9, 5.2], "np_series": [-1.5, -1.3, -2.1, -0.7, -1.8, -1.5], "roe_series": [-27.4, -30.9, -46.5, -13.7, -43.8, -63.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": -29.9, "roe_median": -43.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.4, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.94, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 64.2, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.4, "np_yoy": 97.0, "np_vol": 73.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["皮革及纺织制品", 16.0], ["快消品", 14.0], ["护肤美妆", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 141.4, "ret_prev2_year": -32.1, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": 136.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -0.7, "ret_250": -39.7, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 64.9, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 55, "bondness": 20}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点;资产负债率 64%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 6% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "万里马:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 27.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点。"]}}