{"F": {"ts_code": "300589.SZ", "name": "江龙船艇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.1172, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 548751.604, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.6, 20.6, 16.8, 14.1, 8.1, 3.0], "rev_series": [6.1, 6.9, 6.8, 11.9, 17.3, 7.0], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.1, 0.4, 0.1, -1.3], "roe_series": [9.5, 7.2, 1.7, 5.6, 1.4, -17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.12, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 64.7, "debt_mv": 5.7, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 45.2, "np_yoy": -13.9, "np_vol": 530.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["公务执法船艇", 42.0], ["特种作业船艇", 32.0], ["旅游休闲船艇", 24.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.1, "ret_prev2_year": -10.1, "ret_ytd": -19.5, "ret_pivot": 43.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.7, "ret_60": 15.2, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -7.2, "mdd_250": -59.9, "vol_250": 70.1, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 42, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 15% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "江龙船艇:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点。"]}}