{"F": {"ts_code": "300586.SZ", "name": "美联新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4434, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 638672.5966, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 17.5, 33.7, 21.5, 14.1, 5.9], "rev_series": [15.2, 18.8, 24.0, 18.7, 17.3, 16.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 3.2, 1.1, 0.4, -0.7], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.2, 22.0, 6.5, 1.9, -3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.9, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -9.0, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 9.2, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": 19.1, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.4, "fix_assets": 19.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 4.62, "interest_debt": 12.2, "debt_ebitda": 13.3, "debt_ratio": 45.3, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.2, "np_yoy": 162.6, "np_vol": 228.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["色母粒", 16.0], ["三聚氯氰产品", 12.0], ["三聚氯氰", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.8, "ret_prev2_year": 1.2, "ret_ytd": -17.5, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -27.1, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -29.8, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 60.3, "pos_52w": 54.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 76, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 4.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -27% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "美联新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点。"]}}