{"F": {"ts_code": "300580.SZ", "name": "贝斯特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20170111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.95, "pe_ttm": 34.5218, "pb": 2.8437, "dv_ttm": 0.8965, "total_mv": 951901.706, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.9, 34.4, 34.3, 34.5, 34.7, 33.2], "rev_series": [9.3, 10.6, 11.0, 13.4, 13.6, 15.0], "np_series": [1.8, 2.0, 2.3, 2.6, 2.9, 2.8], "roe_series": [10.6, 10.4, 11.2, 10.5, 9.7, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.8, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.2, "fix_assets": 16.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.84, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 29.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.1, "np_cagr3": 6.7, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -1.5, "np_vol": 7.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 29.6, "fwd_pe2": 25.3, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件", 86.0], ["其他收入", 3.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["智能装备及工装", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.5, "ret_prev2_year": 12.5, "ret_ytd": -27.5, "ret_pivot": 53.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.0, "ret_60": -19.8, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -32.8, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 50.9, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 58, "hard": 69, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 17 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.4%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(毛利率 34.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -20% / -13%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "贝斯特:PE 比行业中位高 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}