{"F": {"ts_code": "300575.SZ", "name": "中旗股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4661, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 294330.0518, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 21.8, 25.6, 22.4, 14.9, 6.3], "rev_series": [18.6, 21.9, 29.7, 23.9, 24.2, 26.8], "np_series": [2.0, 2.1, 4.2, 1.9, 0.1, -1.9], "roe_series": [14.3, 13.7, 22.7, 9.1, 0.5, -9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.9, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 10.9, "ocf_yield": 16.1, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.7, "fix_assets": 22.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 14.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 49.9, "payout": 98.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.2, "np_yoy": 181.6, "np_vol": 689.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["原药", 39.0], ["农药原药", 39.0], ["制剂", 5.0], ["农药制剂", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": 5.5, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -11.5, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 73, "bondness": 69}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 16.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%(经营现金流/市值 16.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 9% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "中旗股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}