{"F": {"ts_code": "300573.SZ", "name": "兴齐眼药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.59, "pe_ttm": 16.8572, "pb": 6.1679, "dv_ttm": 3.1344, "total_mv": 1334135.6343, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.1, 78.1, 78.7, 77.4, 78.3, 81.2], "rev_series": [6.9, 10.3, 12.5, 14.7, 19.4, 24.7], "np_series": [0.9, 1.9, 2.1, 2.4, 3.4, 7.0], "roe_series": [14.1, 19.2, 14.6, 14.8, 20.6, 39.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 7.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 78.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 5.6, "npm_median": 17.4, "roe_median": 19.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.1, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.17, "capex_dep": 2.39, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 21.2, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 77.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.5, "np_cagr3": 48.7, "rev_yoy": 20.5, "np_yoy": 28.5, "np_vol": 46.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 11.4, "fwd_pe2": 8.6, "fwd_g1": 48.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["滴眼剂", 40.0], ["凝胶剂/眼膏剂", 7.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.1, "ret_prev2_year": -46.5, "ret_ytd": -21.3, "ret_pivot": 23.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": -22.1, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 85, "hard": 82, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 28%,PE TTM 16.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.4 倍,PEG 0.36。", "自由现金流 6.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 32%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 51%、毛利率 78.3% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 78.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 2.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.9 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 4% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "兴齐眼药:PE 比行业中位低 20.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.3个百分点。"]}}