{"F": {"ts_code": "300569.SZ", "name": "天能重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.67, "pe_ttm": 52.4971, "pb": 0.9119, "dv_ttm": 0.5879, "total_mv": 477613.0887, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 23.2, 18.8, 20.1, 14.3, 14.1], "rev_series": [34.2, 40.8, 41.8, 42.4, 32.7, 39.6], "np_series": [4.3, 4.0, 2.3, 2.5, -2.6, 1.1], "roe_series": [19.1, 12.8, 5.9, 5.2, -4.8, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.6, "fix_assets": 48.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 45.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 57.2, "debt_mv": 94.2, "payout": 26.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -21.8, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": -26.6, "np_vol": 111.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["塔筒等风电设备制造", 81.0], ["风力发电", 11.0], ["光伏发电", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.5, "ret_prev2_year": -29.7, "ret_ytd": -18.4, "ret_pivot": 19.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.5, "ret_60": -3.3, "ret_120": -39.9, "ret_250": -18.5, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 56.1}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 42, "hard": 62, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.5 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -3% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "天能重工:PE 比行业中位高 20.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.3个百分点。"]}}