{"F": {"ts_code": "300559.SZ", "name": "佳发教育", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.62, "pe_ttm": 337.279, "pb": 3.9561, "dv_ttm": 0.6024, "total_mv": 464235.849, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.5, 57.7, 53.8, 51.8, 51.4, 47.9], "rev_series": [5.9, 3.7, 4.1, 6.0, 4.3, 4.3], "np_series": [2.1, 0.8, 0.7, 1.3, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [20.2, 7.8, 6.8, 11.8, 3.0, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 51.8, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 5.3, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.0, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.96, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 87.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -22.9, "rev_yoy": -45.4, "np_yoy": -43.9, "np_vol": 57.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["教育考试标准化考点产品及整体解决方案", 46.0], ["智慧教育产品及整体解决方案收入", 15.0], ["智慧教育产品及整体解决方案", 15.0], ["合计特别调整", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.8, "ret_prev2_year": -22.4, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": 46.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": 10.8, "ret_120": 1.5, "ret_250": -21.5, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 51.7, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 26, "bondness": 57}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 337.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 337.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 11% / 2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "佳发教育:PE 比行业中位高 254.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点。"]}}