{"F": {"ts_code": "300558.SZ", "name": "贝达药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.98, "pe_ttm": 44.3462, "pb": 3.1294, "dv_ttm": 0.3044, "total_mv": 2073478.5931, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [92.6, 92.2, 88.7, 83.5, 81.4, 79.5], "rev_series": [18.7, 22.5, 23.8, 24.6, 28.9, 36.1], "np_series": [6.1, 3.8, 1.5, 3.5, 4.0, 3.1], "roe_series": [18.4, 8.8, 3.1, 6.9, 7.4, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.5, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 83.5, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.0, "fix_assets": 28.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 3.4, "interest_debt": 24.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 11.8, "payout": 20.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.9, "np_cagr3": 28.1, "rev_yoy": 14.1, "np_yoy": 116.0, "np_vol": 71.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 36.1, "fwd_pe2": 27.0, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["药品销售", 99.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.0, "ret_ytd": 5.2, "ret_pivot": 43.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -30.2, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": 13.6, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 79, "hard": 45, "bondness": 20}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 116%,PE TTM 44.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 36.1 倍,PEG 1.09。", "自由现金流 2.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 83.5%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 83.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 3.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -30% / -7% / 14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "贝达药业:PE 比行业中位高 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}