{"F": {"ts_code": "300557.SZ", "name": "理工光科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20161101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.97, "pe_ttm": 90.5445, "pb": 4.1832, "dv_ttm": 0.5704, "total_mv": 423775.0251, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.0, 29.6, 30.3, 27.7, 31.7, 29.3], "rev_series": [4.3, 4.4, 5.4, 6.0, 6.5, 7.2], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.7, 3.6, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.18, "capex_dep": 0.35, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 41.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.9, "np_cagr3": 33.1, "rev_yoy": 11.7, "np_yoy": 1.4, "np_vol": 15.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光纤传感监测系统", 34.0], ["消防报警一体化服务", 24.0], ["消防报警", 24.0], ["智能化应用系统", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.6, "ret_prev2_year": 21.6, "ret_ytd": -0.1, "ret_pivot": 101.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -16.6, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 17.4, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 58, "hard": 9, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.35 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -17% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "理工光科:PE 比行业中位高 39.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}